Nerds of Steel

Here’s a graphical version of the SIMA versus actual import data that Jessica posted. It includes only carbon/alloy finished long products. The data is shown in short tons. The SIMA license data comes from this website of the import administration. It’s published every Tuesday evening.

The analysis here is an attempt to exploit the early availability of the license data to estimate the imports for the recently completed month. This is necessary because the actual import data which comes from the Department of Commerce trails the month end by 6 weeks. There is a preliminary DOC estimate published about three weeks after month end, but acceptable license data is usually available before then and provides more detail than the DOC preliminary report. In the case of August for instance, the DOC preliminary estimate is of a 39% decline in all imports from the July level. The license data shown here indicate a 37% decline for this group of finished long products.

By using the license data that is available within 2-3 weeks of the month’s end, we can estimate import activity, combine it with the available domestic shipment data and make a quick first assessment of US demand. It may not be as accurate as we’d like, but it’s timely. This is often a management’s first look at what the data say is happening in the market. And a week is a long time in production planning. Watch this space for future updates.