Comments on: Global steel demand poised to grow along with GDP http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/ Industrial revolutionaries at work Fri, 18 Feb 2011 12:51:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: gopalnadkarni http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-114 gopalnadkarni Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:17:57 +0000 http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/#comment-114 Hi Tony: Excellent Analysis. Have you done any preliminary analyis and charting of USA or NAFTA steel demand growth vs USA/NAFTA GDP ? If yes, could you post table/graph and comment ? I am not sure whether we the steel demand growth (apparent consumption) correlates with GDP or with just the industrial sector (manufacturing). Regards, Gopal Hi Tony:

Excellent Analysis. Have you done any preliminary analyis and charting of USA or NAFTA steel demand growth vs USA/NAFTA GDP ? If yes, could you post table/graph and comment ? I am not sure whether we the steel demand growth (apparent consumption) correlates with GDP or with just the industrial sector (manufacturing).
Regards,

Gopal

]]> By: varungoela http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-61 varungoela Thu, 16 Oct 2008 08:22:58 +0000 http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/#comment-61 Tony, just wanted to know what has been the correlation between world GDP growth and World steel consumption growth over the the time period for which you have regressed the data. 1956-2006 Tony, just wanted to know what has been the correlation between world GDP growth and World steel consumption growth over the the time period for which you have regressed the data. 1956-2006

]]> By: Tony Taccone http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-60 Tony Taccone Wed, 08 Oct 2008 15:15:20 +0000 http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/#comment-60 Varungoela, thanks for the comment. You’re regression analysis raises an interesting question, and your results make sense to me. In the period 1950 to the late 1970s, the countries in which steel demand was growing quickly (the US, Western Europe, Japan) represented the bulk of world gdp. So the correlation between their steel demand growth and their gdp growth trumped what was going on in the rest of the world. In the last 15 years, the situation is quite different. The countries which have accounted for the vast majority of recent steel demand growth (the BRICs) represent less than 50% of global gdp. So the positive correlation between steel demand and gdp growth in the BRICS is being muted by the weaker correlation between steel demand and gdp growth in the developed economies. Bottom line: While I think you have to be careful drawing a specific conclusion based on only 15 years of data, especially given the variation of data points around the fitted regression line, I think your conclusion is directionally correct. Varungoela, thanks for the comment. You’re regression analysis raises an interesting question, and your results make sense to me. In the period 1950 to the late 1970s, the countries in which steel demand was growing quickly (the US, Western Europe, Japan) represented the bulk of world gdp. So the correlation between their steel demand growth and their gdp growth trumped what was going on in the rest of the world.

In the last 15 years, the situation is quite different. The countries which have accounted for the vast majority of recent steel demand growth (the BRICs) represent less than 50% of global gdp. So the positive correlation between steel demand and gdp growth in the BRICS is being muted by the weaker correlation between steel demand and gdp growth in the developed economies.

Bottom line: While I think you have to be careful drawing a specific conclusion based on only 15 years of data, especially given the variation of data points around the fitted regression line, I think your conclusion is directionally correct.

]]> By: varungoela http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-59 varungoela Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:41:59 +0000 http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2007/12/18/global-steel-demand-poised-to-grow-along-with-gdp/#comment-59 Hi Tony, A very good article. Just wanted to ask. I regressed "world steel consumption gorwth data" for the last 15 years (because i do not have data for more years)with the "world GDP growth" and got a slope of around 3. So does that mean that the sensitivity of steel consumption growth to world GDP growth is reducing?? Hi Tony, A very good article. Just wanted to ask. I regressed “world steel consumption gorwth data” for the last 15 years (because i do not have data for more years)with the “world GDP growth” and got a slope of around 3. So does that mean that the sensitivity of steel consumption growth to world GDP growth is reducing??

]]>