Nerds of Steel

According to newly released data by the World Steel Association, global crude steel production slowed by about 7% from September to October. Steel output is higher in 2008 than in 2007 by about 2.9%.

But the more interesting analysis is to explore how the data reflects the global industrial slowdown in different parts of the world economy. Global crude steel monthly output in 2008 peaked in May. Since then, monthly production has fallen about 20MT or 16%. But the decline has not been shared equally.

Russia and Ukraine represent about 6% of total crude steel production, but their decline (very export and semi-finished intensive) has been 37% or 19% of the total decline. China’s monthly crude steel output has declined 22% since May or 52% of the global decline. China represents about 36% of global crude steel production.

And the developed world’s (North America, Europe, Japan etc) monthly output has declined 10% since May or 25% of the total decline. But even here there is significant variation. The US and Canada have declined 16% while the EU-27 declined only 10%. Despite these variations, or may be because of them, it looks like the global steel production system is respondingly quickly and appropriately to the rapid shift in demand expectations. All the data for this analysis is contained in our spreadsheet below. Feel free to share your own insights in a comment.