Those of you who read my presentation to the MSCI last September might be interested, amused or even shocked at the update that I presented recently to a corporate event (see slides below).
2008 finished about 10MT shy of the forecast I made in September and therefore 2009 looks to be down at least that on the relatively modest decline I was prepared to commit to then. This time I’ve added a more severe scenario showing a 10% demand decline in 2009 from 2008. (This is still shy of the 15% declines forecast by analysts in today’s AMM.) Even under my severe scenario however, very manageable downward adjustments to producer capacity could bring utilization rates up to reasonable levels.
Being wrong about the future is an occupational hazard. As I say somewhere in the presentation, there is an old Arab proverb that runs, “A man who forecasts the future lies even if he’s right.” Sadly little danger of that, even in September.