We’re not a forecasting firm, we’re strategy consultants. But lately macroeconomic developments are at the forefront of everyone’s mind, for obvious reasons. So we’ve endeavored to keep you abreast of the latest forecasts and what they might mean for steel production and demand. In this vein, I received the following question yesterday from one of our blog readers: “What´s your prediction in the EU, USA and China for 2009 steel output?”
In this post, I indicated that steel demand in the US might be down 15-20% this year, if GDP falls by 1.6% as forecast by the IMF. I made no specific forecast of 2009 steel production, but it will be off as well, probably by a little less than demand.
I don’t have a specific forecast for Europe, but Eurofer, the European Steel Producer’s Association, has done a great job of providing one. They are calling for steel demand (as measured by apparent domestic consumption) and production to be down 15% and 16% respectively in 2009 before picking up in 2010. Here’s a direct link to the pdf file, which includes the forecast and some detail supporting the forecast.
As far as China is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Anyone want to provide a forecast of Chinese steel production or consumption in 2009? Maybe we should run a contest and see who comes closest. Winner gets a Nerds of Steel T-shirt!
