Last week I spoke at the AMM Steel Tube & Pipe conference in Houston. My presentation was titled “Return of the Evil Banana” and provides a forecast of 2009-2013 steel demand in the US. The forecast is based on a proprietary First River model which relates steel demand in the US to NA automotive production levels and non-residential construction activity. Given the bearish nature of these forecasts over the next 5 years, the implications for steel demand in the US are dire.
As for the title, it refers to the fact that during the recession of 1980, Jimmy Carter did not like his economic advisers using the term recession, so they substituted the word “banana”.