The World Steel Association recently published two important sets of data. The first, published about a week ago are the latest figures for crude steel production by country through March of 2009. You can see and use that data in the Nerds spreadsheet below. In aggregate it shows an 8.3% improvement in global output March over February.
The second document which was published today, is worldsteel’s short term forecast for apparent steel use by major world country. This is the first such short term forecast for some time and it’s a welcome contribution to the assessment of how 2009 might turn out from a good many of the world’s steel companies. The current forecast shows a 14.9% decline in world steel consumption in 2009 to 1,019MT.
Since the crude steel production data indicates production equivalent to consumption (yielded at 90%) of about 237MT in the first quarter (and ignoring inventory changes), the apparent consumption forecast implies consumption in the next three quarters of 782MT or 260MT a quarter. In other words, we should expect only a modest increase (say 10%) in global steel production rates for the rest of the year, again ignoring any inventory re-build. Here’s the forecast consumption document in PDF format: Apparent Steel Use by Country, April 2009 Forecast
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Applying this methodology to U.S. only results in a projected 56% increase in steel production for the remainder of the year. Ignoring inventory effects is a risky assumption.
You’re right HB, it is. And we’re not forecasting any such increase. But ignoring net trade flows is even riskier. If I interpret your 56% correctly, you don’t account for the fact that Worldsteel’s apparent consumption in the US contains some portion of net imports. Allowing for imports would imply a much lower increase in US industry production. See Tony’s recent Evil Banana presentation to get our latest views on US production this year. Thanks for your comment. Close readers keep us honest!
Hello,
My name is Brennan Downes, a developer with GE Energy…. I am looking
for projections 2009 -2014 if possible of crude steel production before
it is worked into the end products by country. Has your company done
such an analysis? If not, can you point me in the right direction find
these types of estimates?
Very kind regards,
Hi Brennan. Thanks for the question. The answer depends in part on how many and which countries you need to forecast. I’ll send you an e-mail and we can discuss some sources and options.