Worldsteel raises world steel demand growth forecast on improved China outlook

by Jessica Wagner on October 12, 2016

in Data

In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published October 11th, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast upwards. The revision raised estimated world steel demand growth between 2015 and 2016 from -0.8% in its April Short Range Outlook to 0.2% in its recent published figures. In addition, it revised the demand growth between 2016 and 2017 from -0.4% in its April estimate to 0.5%.

The higher growth in both years is due an improved (though still negative) estimate for growth in China, which accounts for about 45% of world steel demand, while the growth forecast for the rest or the world was lowered. Instead of declining by 4% in 2016 as predicted in April by Worldsteel, China’s apparent steel use will fall by 1%. In 2017, China’s ASU is now expected to fall by 2% instead of by 3% as predicted in April. Outside China, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2016 (1.8% in April’s SRO), and 2.6% in 2017 (3.0% in April’s SRO). European Union demand growth was lowered to 0.8% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017 while NAFTA demand growth was lowered to 0.1% in 2016 but increased to 2.9% in 2017.