Nerds of Steel

US long products import licenses declined from a peak of 462,000 short tons in April to 238,000 short tons in May. About 65% of this decline is due to Turkey, which did not apply for any rebar or wire rod import licenses in May (nor did it in March). In comparison, Turkey’s rebar licenses were 105,000 short tons in April while wire rod licenses were about 39,000 short tons.

A reader called NanoSteel posted a comment recently asking if we knew the total value of M&A activity in the global steel industry for 2007. One source is an annual publication by PWC which compiles transactions in the global metals industry.

According to the PWC there were 249 deals in the global steel industry in 2007 worth $61 billion. Comparable numbers for 2006 were 236 deals worth $79 billion. So more deals, but on average smaller deals. This is consistent with what we observed last year - consolidators continue to be active but many of the most obvious first stage deals have been done and the next stage of deals will be more creative and reach further into the undergrowth of the global industry.

Severstal North America’s Q1 2008 financial results have been added to the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet. SNA had EBITDA per ton of $171 in Q1 2008 up from $39 in Q1 2007. However, this result includes a $156 million gain from the buyout of a long term electricity supply contract. Without the one-off gain, EBITDA per ton was ($6). The Q1 2008 results also include SeverCorr, which shipped over 300,000 tons in the most recent quarter.

Licenses for long products imports into the US increased from 257,000 short tons in March to 462,000 short tons in April, reaching their highest levels since July 2007. Rebar licenses increased from 77,000 tons in March to 189,000 tons in April, mainly due to Turkey, which didn’t apply for any licenses in March but applied for about 95,000 tons in April. Wire rod licenses increased from 78,000 tons in March to 159,000 tons in April; about 35,000 tons due to an increase in licenses from Turkey and the remainder from other countries such as Germany and Brazil. The spreadsheet below will be updated with March actuals as soon as they are available.

Today US Steel reported first quarter 2008 financial results. EBITDA per ton was $62, which is up from Q4 2007 but down from the 2007 average of $78. There were some special charges (inventory adjustments and a litigation reserve) which reduced reported operating income and EBITDA. Excluding these charges, EBITDA was $71 per ton, which is still below US Steel’s peers. To see how US Steel’s results compare to its peers, check out the Nerds of Steel Earnings spreadsheet.
A transcript of US Steel’s first quarter earnings conference call can be found here.