Martin Wolf, as he often does, wrote an interesting column in the Financial Times recently called The market sets high oil prices to tell us what to do. As $1,000/ton steel becomes an accepted fact of life it’s worth asking what the market is telling us to do about high steel prices.
Martin Wolf offers six ‘do’s and ‘do not’s’ as responses to the price of oil. Here they are and how they apply to steel.
1. Do not blame conspiracies or speculators
The steel industry version of conspiracy or speculation theory is ‘insanity’ theory. Current steel prices are regularly called “ridiculous” by some observers. But calling prices ridiculous cuts off any further, more reasoned analysis as to why prices of $1,000/ton or even twice that might not only be rational, but sustainable in the foreseeable future. Avoid calling prices ridiculous. It doesn’t help, especially if they go up again.
2. Do not blame emerging countries for their growing demand
It seems obvious that soaring steel demand in developing countries is a good thing for most industry participants, sellers and buyers. But sometimes these emerging economies are blamed for the few negative aspects to the industry’s current good fortune. China, India and the like have helped drag the industry out of its long term poor performance and we should be thankful at least for that and hope their growth continues.
3. Adjust to high prices by becoming more efficient in the use of oil
Just as with oil, the developed world has been profligate in its use of steel. We thought we could afford to be when it cost only $200/ton. But in Pittsburgh, we still use it to cover potholes in the street. In many manufacturing processes, yield losses of 25% or more are commonplace. We need to be more efficient in our use of steel because it isn’t cheap any more and it’s unlikely to be for some time. Smart manufacturers like Toyota recognize this.
Read the rest of this entry »
If you want to understand freight rates, you might first want to go to an industry overview provided by Genco Shipping and Trading Limited It includes a very good description of how different drybulk materials are shipped and what the rates you will find actually mean.
You can find current iron ore and coal freight rates on a webpage provided by metaljunction. By clicking on the world map freight route, and by “viewing the details”, you can in many cases get information on shipper, vessel name, tonnage, loading port, unloading port, etc.
Another site by the shipbroking group Simpson Spence and Young provides graphs of iron ore and coal freight rates for major world routes from January to December 2007
If you are trying to understand the historic freight differential between iron ore shipments from Brazil to China and Australia to China, see a BHP presentation from 2005, slide 15, which shows the differential from August 2001 to February 2005. Slide 16 then shows delivered costs of iron ore into China from February 2002 to December 2004.
Finally, as you probably know, there are two well-know indices of drybulk freight rates, one is from the Baltic Exchange, and the other is from JE Hyde. The Baltic indices are only available to Baltic Exchange subscribers, but you can get both the Baltic indices and the JE Hyde indices if you have a subscription to Metal Bulletin and click on the category “Maritime News”. If you don’t have Metal Bulletin access, you can read the JE Hyde indices levels in the banner on the JE Hyde home page.
Below is a presentation I made at Steel Business Briefing’s North American steel conference held in Chicago March 2008. The topic of my panel was “American Steel: Land of Opportunity”. My presentation deals with the recent acquisition of steel assets in North America by companies headquartered outside the region and argues that the North American steel industry is stronger because of the involvement of global consolidators. The presentation also argues that the restructured North American steel industry is a model for other regions, all of which are or will eventually experience a similar restructuring of ownership and thereby bring about a more sustainable global industry structure.
Below is a presentation I made recently at the SMA Board of Directors meeting in Florida. It deals with the issue of organizational size in today’s steel industry and asks some questions (more than providing any answers) about how the structure of steel organizations will change as they deal with much different dimensions of scale and scope. It also contains some provocative “Zipfian” statistical analysis of industry structure that raises questions as to how consolidation might proceed both in the US and globally.
In the end, there is no argument for or against big or small organizations here. Mittal after all was producing less than 500KT 20 years ago. But in the future, our industry will be populated by much larger organizations than it is today. Organizational innovation is going to be vital to the strategic health of any company of any size that wants to remain successful and independent. Click on the presentation’s ‘Menu’ button (lower right) to see a larger view.
Until a few years ago the steel industry was considered mature, and the moniker was accurate. Global steel demand grew more slowly than did the world’s population. In much of the developed world, demand for steel was stagnant after having gone through a long period of decline. Since 1998, however, the steel industry seems to have re-ignited its growth engine and kicked into a new gear. The industry has been growing at 6% annually and most analysts see strong growth continuing for a decade or more. What explains the steel industry’s reemergence and can it continue?
Read the rest of this entry »
