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Articles

European steel production and demand forecast 2009

February 6, 2009

We’re not a forecasting firm, we’re strategy consultants. But lately macroeconomic developments are at the forefront of everyone’s mind, for obvious reasons. So we’ve endeavored to keep you abreast of the latest forecasts and what they might mean for steel production and demand.  In this vein, I received the following question yesterday from one of [...]

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2009 GDP forecasts and steel demand growth

February 2, 2009

The International Monetary Fund recently updated its global GDP growth forecast for 2009 and 2010.  Not surprisingly, the growth projections were revised downward.   So I thought I’d take the opportunity to update the graph showing the relationship between global GDP and steel demand and to refine the comments I made in a recent post using [...]

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7 Puzzling Questions About Steel Industry Publishing

January 30, 2009

Don’t get me wrong. I love my steel news sources. I’m a steel nerd and, if it existed, I’d want my FeTV too. But here’s a rant that I indulge in once a year because I think the industry’s subscription news sources are lacking and have not yet fully engaged in the search for a [...]

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2009 will be tough for steel – but how tough?

January 6, 2009

2009 will be a difficult year for the global steel industry.  How bad it gets and what happens on the other side of the global slowdown is impossible to predict. But there is no shortage of observers willing to paint a bleak picture.  In a recent article in the Financial Times, Peter Marsh summed up the [...]

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China, Steel & the Growth of Both

December 17, 2008

The difficulties of interpreting and forecasting the current dynamic economic environment are revealed in the latest World Bank report on commodities. You can download the report at the World Bank site or directly from us here Commodities at the Crossroads, 2009. It’s long-winded holiday reading, but if you follow steel (or commodities generally) it’s worth [...]

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GDP and steel demand in Europe

November 23, 2008

In response to a presentation I posted recently on this blog, I received the following questions from an investment firm based in Switzerland. 1) Is your indicated correlation also applicable to Europe only, i.e. could it be used to forecast steel demand in Europe? 2) Europe is expected to grow below 2,5% real GDP for [...]

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Steel industry capacity utilization falls below 70%

November 5, 2008

Data just released by the AISI shows raw steel capacity utilization at 67.3% during the last week of October, down from close to 90% a couple months ago.  How does utilization below 70% compare to previous recessions?  And how long might it last?  A review of historical data is always a good place to start [...]

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6 reasons why a downturn in steel won’t be as bad as in the past

October 15, 2008

The tumult in financial markets will spill over into the ‘real’ economy in a number of ways not least of course in slowing economic growth on regional and global levels. Slower economic growth means less steel consumption and production so it’s worthwhile, if a little sobering, to contemplate just how hard steel might be hit. There have [...]

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