A reader called NanoSteel posted a comment recently asking if we knew the total value of M&A activity in the global steel industry for 2007. One source is an annual publication by PWC which compiles transactions in the global metals industry.
According to the PWC there were 249 deals in the global steel industry in 2007 worth $61 billion. Comparable numbers for 2006 were 236 deals worth $79 billion. So more deals, but on average smaller deals. This is consistent with what we observed last year - consolidators continue to be active but many of the most obvious first stage deals have been done and the next stage of deals will be more creative and reach further into the undergrowth of the global industry.
Martin Wolf, as he often does, wrote an interesting column in the Financial Times recently called The market sets high oil prices to tell us what to do. As $1,000/ton steel becomes an accepted fact of life it’s worth asking what the market is telling us to do about high steel prices.
Martin Wolf offers six ‘do’s and ‘do not’s’ as responses to the price of oil. Here they are and how they apply to steel.
1. Do not blame conspiracies or speculators
The steel industry version of conspiracy or speculation theory is ‘insanity’ theory. Current steel prices are regularly called “ridiculous” by some observers. But calling prices ridiculous cuts off any further, more reasoned analysis as to why prices of $1,000/ton or even twice that might not only be rational, but sustainable in the foreseeable future. Avoid calling prices ridiculous. It doesn’t help, especially if they go up again.
2. Do not blame emerging countries for their growing demand
It seems obvious that soaring steel demand in developing countries is a good thing for most industry participants, sellers and buyers. But sometimes these emerging economies are blamed for the few negative aspects to the industry’s current good fortune. China, India and the like have helped drag the industry out of its long term poor performance and we should be thankful at least for that and hope their growth continues.
3. Adjust to high prices by becoming more efficient in the use of oil
Just as with oil, the developed world has been profligate in its use of steel. We thought we could afford to be when it cost only $200/ton. But in Pittsburgh, we still use it to cover potholes in the street. In many manufacturing processes, yield losses of 25% or more are commonplace. We need to be more efficient in our use of steel because it isn’t cheap any more and it’s unlikely to be for some time. Smart manufacturers like Toyota recognize this.
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Severstal recently closed its acquisition of the Sparrow’s Point mill owned by ArcelorMittal. The price paid by Severstal, $810 million, works out to just over $200 per ton of installed steel making capacity. This is well below what assets have been selling for in North America. As can be seen in the graph below, the acquisition cost per ton paid for steel making capacity has risen from around $200 per ton when the consolidation process started, to over $1,000 per ton in the last couple years.
Of course, Sparrows Point was not operating at capacity and generated only $25 million of EBITDA in 2007. So we’ll have to wait and see whether or not this was a good buy by Severstal. On the surface, however, $200 per ton for a fully integrated plant on deep water seems like a bargain.
MMK’s planned steel mill in southern Ohio just received final permits from the Ohio EPA. You will be able to see the permits (though they’re not yet online) at the Ohio EPA site. A number of other application documents were linked to from this post back in February.
Below is a presentation I made at Steel Business Briefing’s North American steel conference held in Chicago March 2008. The topic of my panel was “American Steel: Land of Opportunity”. My presentation deals with the recent acquisition of steel assets in North America by companies headquartered outside the region and argues that the North American steel industry is stronger because of the involvement of global consolidators. The presentation also argues that the restructured North American steel industry is a model for other regions, all of which are or will eventually experience a similar restructuring of ownership and thereby bring about a more sustainable global industry structure.
