From the category archives:


Steel demand forecast for the US 2009-2013

April 7, 2009

Last week I spoke at the AMM Steel Tube & Pipe conference in Houston.  My presentation was titled “Return of the Evil Banana” and provides a forecast of 2009-2013 steel demand in the US.  The forecast is based on a proprietary First River model which relates steel demand in the US to NA automotive production […]

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“The sky is falling, should we run for it?”

January 23, 2009

On January 21, I appeared on a steel outlook panel at the inaugural AMM State of Steel conference in NY.  My presentation, “The sky is falling, should we run for it,” appears below.  The main point I made was that while 2009 will be a very difficult year, we should not be surprised that steel […]

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Updated 2009 US Steel Market Forecast

January 20, 2009

Those of you who read my presentation to the MSCI last September might be interested, amused or even shocked at the update that I presented recently to a corporate event (see slides below). 2008 finished about 10MT shy of the forecast I made in September and therefore 2009 looks to be down at least that […]

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How low can we go? GDP and steel demand

October 17, 2008

Yesterday, I made a presentation at the American Metal Market conference on wire & wire rod. The title was “How low can we go?” and my purpose was to provide a few heuristics for relating GDP projections to steel demand, both globally and in the US. I tried to avoid making a specific forecast because […]

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US Carbon Steel Forecast 2009 Presentation

September 16, 2008

NOTE: There’s an updated (for Q4 2008), revised (in Q1 2009) & expanded version of this presentation here: Here’s a shortened version of a presentation I made last week to the MSCI Economic Summit: Forecast 2009 meeting in Chicago. It’s a great event if you get the chance to go. The essence of what I […]

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SMA May 2008 presentation

May 22, 2008

Below is a presentation I made to the Steel Manufacturers Association’s annual members meeting in Washington, DC on May 20, 2008. The title was “Black Swans in the Steel Industry: What do They Mean?” (Of course the title is taken from the best selling book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.) My presentation identifies what I believe […]

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