Below is a presentation I made to the Steel Manufacturers Association’s annual members meeting in Washington, DC on May 20, 2008. The title was “Black Swans in the Steel Industry: What do They Mean?” (Of course the title is taken from the best selling book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.) My presentation identifies what I believe are a few very significant recent developments in the industry and argues that these black swan events are manifestations of the seismic and systemic changes the industry is undergoing. Of course once you’ve seen a black swan, your perception of swans is forever changed.
Below is a presentation I made at Steel Business Briefing’s North American steel conference held in Chicago March 2008. The topic of my panel was “American Steel: Land of Opportunity”. My presentation deals with the recent acquisition of steel assets in North America by companies headquartered outside the region and argues that the North American steel industry is stronger because of the involvement of global consolidators. The presentation also argues that the restructured North American steel industry is a model for other regions, all of which are or will eventually experience a similar restructuring of ownership and thereby bring about a more sustainable global industry structure.
Below is a presentation I made recently at the SMA Board of Directors meeting in Florida. It deals with the issue of organizational size in today’s steel industry and asks some questions (more than providing any answers) about how the structure of steel organizations will change as they deal with much different dimensions of scale and scope. It also contains some provocative “Zipfian” statistical analysis of industry structure that raises questions as to how consolidation might proceed both in the US and globally.
In the end, there is no argument for or against big or small organizations here. Mittal after all was producing less than 500KT 20 years ago. But in the future, our industry will be populated by much larger organizations than it is today. Organizational innovation is going to be vital to the strategic health of any company of any size that wants to remain successful and independent. Click on the presentation’s ‘Menu’ button (lower right) to see a larger view.
