Worldsteel published September’s world crude steel production on October 20th. World crude steel production was 130.9 million metric tonnes, 3.7% lower than in September 2014. World output for the first nine months of 2015 was 2.4% lower than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 50% of world production in September with output of 66.1 million tonnes, down 3.0% compared to September 2014. Crude production in Asia outside of China fell 4.4% year-on-year, with output in Japan falling 7.3%, South Korea falling 2.7%, Taiwan down 6.0%, and India down 1.4%. European Union production was 4.6% lower than in September 2014, including a 43.3% drop in the UK as well as lower output in Germany, France, and Italy. Outside of the EU, Turkish output fell 14.1% compared to September last year and Russian production declined 3.2%. In the Americas, Brazil’s output fell 13.0% and US output was down 8.5%.
All the data for September 2015 and for a number of prior years can be found in the Nerds spreadsheet below.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports fell 19% from 458,000 short tons in August to 369,000 tons in September. Long products imports in September 2014 were 398,000 tons and in September 2013 they were 360,000 tons. Longs imports for the first nine months of 2015 were 10% higher than in the same period last year.
The fall in long products imports in September was driven by lower rebar imports from Japan and Peru. Parallel flange sections imports also declined significantly with lower volumes from a number of countries including Korea, Luxembourg and Canada.
Long products import licenses for October as reported mid-month on October 15th were 349,000 tons, which is likely to mean that full-month October imports will be much higher than September’s.
SIMA US long products import licenses and actuals
2012-2015
short tons
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published October 12th, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast downward for both 2015 and 2016. The revision lowered estimated world steel consumption growth between 2014 and 2015 from 0.5% in its April Short Range Outlook to -1.7% in its recent published figures. In addition, it revised the consumption growth between 2015 and 2016 from 1.4% in its April estimate to 0.7%.
Instead of declining by 0.5% in 2015 as predicted in April by Worldsteel, China’s apparent steel use will fall by 3.5%. In 2016, China’s ASU is now expected to fall by 2.0% instead of by 0.5% as predicted in April. In the world excluding China, 2015 consumption growth was lowered from 1.3% in April to -0.2% today, though the expected 2.9% growth between 2015 and 2016 was not changed.
Worldsteel also revised downward its steel consumption growth forecast for the European Union. Consumption in 2015 is expected to grow by 1.3% instead of by 2.1% as forecast in April, and consumption in 2016 will grow by 2.2% instead of by 2.8%. Steel consumption growth in the NAFTA region was revised downward from -0.9% to -2.7% for 2015 and was revised upward from 1.3% to 2.1% for 2016.
See the spreadsheet below for all the other Worldsteel 2015 and 2016 growth estimates together with the Worldsteel Short Range Outlook figures from the last few years.
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports fell 8% from 1,096,000 short tons in August to 1,006,000 tons in September. Flat products imports in September 2014 were 1,387,000 tons and in September 2013 they were 816,000 tons. Imports of flat products over the first 9 months of 2015 were 5% higher than in the same period last year, with cut plate imports rising 1%, hot roll imports up 2%, cold roll imports up 7% and hot dip galvanized imports up 13%.
The drop in flat products imports in September was driven by lower hot roll imports where volumes fell significantly from Brazil, but also from Canada, Australia, Japan and Mexico. Hot dip galvanized imports also declined, here mainly from China, India and South Africa, and despite a rise from Korea and Italy. In contrast, cut plate imports rose significantly on higher volumes from Germany and France.
I will update the chart below to show mid-October licenses when the figures are published the week of October 19th.
SIMA US Import Licenses and Actuals, Flat Products
September 2012 to September 2015
short tons
Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 66.9 million metric tonnes in August, 3.5% lower than in August 2014. Chinese crude output in the first eight months of 2015 was 1.8% lower than in the same period last year.
China’s net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in August were 8.7 million tonnes, 32.6% higher than in August 2014. Net exports for the first eight months of 2015 were 34.3% higher than in the first eight months of 2014.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2005 to August 2015
thousand metric tonnes
Worldsteel published August’s world crude steel production on September 21st. World crude steel production was 132.3 million metric tonnes, 3.1% lower than in August 2014. World output for the first eight months of 2015 was 2.2% lower than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 51% of world production in August with output of 66.9M tonnes, down 3.5% compared to August 2014. Other significant changes year-on-year in Asia include a 5.8% production decline in Japan, a 4.9% increase in South Korea, and a 2.8% increase in India. In the Americas, US production was down 9.7% compared to last August, and in the CIS, Russian output declined by 3.2%. European Union output overall rose by 0.1%, though production increased 10.7% in Germany and fell 16.3% in the UK. And finally, Turkish crude production was down 11.8% in comparison to August 2014.
All the data for August 2015 and for a number of prior years can be found in the Nerds spreadsheet below.
