Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports dropped 14% from 806,000 short tons in October to 697,000 tons in November. November flat products imports in 2012 were 745,000 tons, in 2011 614,000 tons, in 2010 513,000 tons, in 2009 423,000 tons, and in 2008 641,000 tons. In addition, year-to-November flat products imports in 2013 were 8% higher than in 2012.
The fall in November was driven by a 40% fall in hot dip galvanized imports due to lower imports mainly from India, but also from China, Canada, Korea and Taiwan. Cold rolled imports also fell by about 12%.
I will update the chart below to show mid-December licenses when the data is published next week. To see the data behind the chart, just click on the Excel icon to download a copy of the file.
Worldsteel published October’s global crude steel production on November 20th. World crude steel production was 134.3 million metric tonnes, 7% higher than in October 2012 and 1% higher than in September 2013.
Chinese production rose by 10% between October 2012 and 2013 to reach 65.1 million tonnes though average daily production month-on-month fell 2% between September and October 2013. Other production changes between October 2012 and October 2013 that significantly affect the world total include an 8% rise in Japan, a 5% rise in South Korea, a 9% increase in the US, a 24% increase in Spain, a 7% increase in Turkey, and a 10% drop in Italy.
All the data for October 2013 and a number of prior years can be viewed in the Nerds spreadsheet below. Happy Thanksgiving!
US flat products imports for September were 816,000 short tons, 3% higher than my estimate based on import licenses reported October 31st.
It is impossible to predict October imports based on import licenses because the figures reported by SIMA are incomplete due to the October 1st to 16th government shutdown (see also my earlier post about October long products imports). According to the license data reported November 19th, October flat products imports would be only 499,000 tons, which is very low compared to September actuals as well as mid-month November licenses, which look accurate. November flat products imports licenses as reported November 19th were 407,000 tons, which is likely to mean that full-month November licenses will be slightly lower than September’s.
US long products imports for September were 255,000 short tons, only 1% higher than my estimate based on import licenses reported October 24th.
It is more difficult to make an estimate of October imports based on import licenses because the figures reported by SIMA appear to be have been affected by the US government shutdown from October 1st to October 16th. According to licenses data reported November 19th, US long products imports in October were 120,000 tons. This is very low compared to September actuals as well as mid-month November licenses, which look more realistic. November long products import licenses as reported November 19th were 139,000 tons, which is likely to mean that full-month November actuals will be a bit lower than September’s.
All the companies we track in the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet have now reported earnings for Q3 2013. Links to the press releases for the latest batch of announcements can can be found below:
Essar Steel Algoma continued to struggle, as EBITDA per ton fell from a loss of $12 in Q2 to a loss of $42 per ton in Q3. ArcelorMIttal saw little change as EBITDA per ton remained roughly steady at $74 per ton from $72 in the previous quarter. Severstal and Ternium both turned in strong quarters with EBITDA per ton well above $100 per ton – $132 for Severstal and $141 for Ternium.
More Q3 earnings have been released and logged into the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet. Links to press releases are shown below.
SSAB’s EBITDA per ton is the lowest we’ve seen so far at $9, due to weakness in the plate market and Europe, while Gerdau’s is the highest at $119 per ton. Ternium and ArcelorMittal are due to release earnings later this week.
