So far this week we have had earnings announcements from AK Steel and POSCO. Links to the releases can be found below.
AK Steel’s performance was weaker in Q3 than it had been in the first two quarters of this year. EBITDA per ton fell to $29, from $81 in Q2. POSCO’s results were also weaker in Q3 relative to Q2 but remained at the high end of companies tracked in the
Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet. POSCO’s EBITDA per ton (steel sector only) was $126 in Q3, down from $149 in Q2.
Nucor and Steel Dynamics announced Q3 2012 earnings last week. Links to the companies’ press releases can be found below.
Both companies posted results that were similar to the first two quarters of this year. As you can see on the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet, Steel Dynamics had EBITDA per ton of $79 in the quarter while Nucor reported $66 per ton. We’ll post more results as they are released.
US long products imports increased 13% from 197,000 short tons in August to 222,000 tons in September. In comparison, September long products imports in 2011 were 146,000 tons, in 2010 195,000 tons, in 2009 136,000 tons, in 2008 233,000 tons and in 2007 312,000 tons.
Wire rod, merchant bar, and parallel flange sections imports drove the overall increase. Wire rod imports increased from countries such as Italy, Brazil, the UK, and South Africa. There was, however, a significant decline in All Other Structural Sections imports mainly due to lower imports of sheet piling from Luxembourg.
October long products licenses reported up to October 16th were 137,000 tons, which is likely to mean that full-month October imports will be slightly lower than September’s.
After a downward revision in April this year, worldsteel made a further revision downward for world apparent steel use in 2012. The revision this time was from 3.6% in April 2012’s Short Range Outlook to 2.1% in the latest October 2012 version published last week. In addition, the forecast for growth in world apparent steel use in 2013 was also revised from 4.5% to 3.2%. That means that instead of ASU of 1,422MT in 2012 and 1,486MT in 2013, worldsteel is now forecasting 1,409MT in 2012 and 1,455MT in 2013 or 13MT and 31MT lower respectively.
wordsteel’s current estimate is that China’s apparent steel use will grow by 2.5% in 2012 instead of by 3.6%, and by 3.2% in 2013 instead of by 4.5%. In fact, worldsteel estimates of steel use in almost every region of the world were revised downward in both 2012 and 2013. Revisions were particularly sharp in the European Union, where steel use in 2012 is estimated to decline now by 5.6% or about 9MT in 2012 instead of by 1.2% or 2MT. Steel use in the EU is now expected to be lower in 2013 (at 148.1MT) than in 2011. The only region where growth is expected to be higher than previously forecast is NAFTA. Steel use in 2012 is expected to rise by 7.5% (9MT) compared to the April Short Range Outlook estimate of 5.2%.
See the spreadsheet below for a better look at the numbers published in the October Short Range Outlook together with regional apparent steel use over the last few years.
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 6% from 695,000 short tons in August to 739,000 tons in September. September flat products imports in 2011 were 576,000 tons, in 2010 563,000 tons, in 2009 434,000 tons, and in 2008 816,000 tons.
A rise in hot rolled imports drove the overall climb, with Korea, Germany, India, and Japan showing the highest increases. Imports of all other flat products categories decreased with cut plate declining the most, by almost 40,000 tons or 30% compared to August, due to lower imports from countries such as Turkey and Brazil.
I will update the spreadsheet below after licenses are updated on Tuesday, October 16th in order to show mid-October licenses data.
China crude steel production was 58.7 million tonnes in August, 0.08% lower than in the same month last year and the lowest production level since February 2012. Year-to-date Chinese crude production was 476.6 million tonnes, 1.2% higher than year-to-August 2011 output.
Comparing consecutive months, August’s production was 3.0 million tonnes lower than July’s. In addition, China’s net exports in August were 3.04 million tonnes, 0.12 million tonnes lower than net exports in July.
