Chinese crude steel production dropped 9% from 51.8 million metric tonnes in October to 47.3 million tonnes in November. This is still 34% higher than November 2008 crude steel production.
Finished steel exports rose 5% to 2.85 million tonnes, continuing the climb started in June 2009 when exports were 1.43 million tonnes. November 2009 exports were 3% lower than November 2008’s, and 30% lower than November 2007’s. Net finished steel exports grew to 1.56 million tonnes and apparent domestic consumption fell 10% to 43.4 million tonnes.
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports dropped 7% from 429,000 short tons in October (according to preliminary census figures) to 398,000 short tons in November. This can be compared to 641,000 tons of imports in November 2008.
Hot rolled and cold rolled imports both grew at 1% between October and November. Cut plate imports, however, dropped 42% to 23,000 tons mainly due to lower imports from Canada. Hot dip galvanized imports also dropped significantly by 21% to 70,000 tons due to reduced imports from Canada, Korea, and Taiwan.
December flat products import licenses reported up to December 8th were 120,000 tons. It’s too early in December to try to predict full-month December figures but I will update the graph below after next Tuesday’s license update which will give us a clearer picture of likely full-month results.
Chinese crude steel production rose 2% from 50.71 million metric tonnes in September to 51.75 million tonnes in October. This is 44% higher than October 2008 crude steel production.
Finished steel exports continued to climb from the 1.35 million tonnes low reached in May 2009 to a level of 2.71 million tonnes in October. But exports remained low compared to last year October’s 4.62 million tonnes. Net finished steel exports grew to 1.23 million tonnes and apparent domestic consumption of finished steel grew a marginal 1% to 48 million tonnes.
According to data published today by worldsteel, world crude steel production reached 112MT for the first time since August of 2008. The October figure is a 3.1% improvement on September’s output and 13% better than October production last year when the industry was beginning its sharp decline.
China’s month-to-month growth of about 2% was exceeded by growth outside China of about 4%. Developed economies showed a 5% monthly improvement while developing economies outside China improved only 1%. As we near the end of the year, barring some dramatic change in the industry’s progress, it looks like we’ll see a roughly 10% year-on-year drop in world output in 2009 flattered by an 11% increase in Chinese production. The data are in the Nerds spreadsheet below.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 51% from 136,000 short tons in September to 205,000 tons in October. October 2008 long products imports were 211,000 tons.
Imports of all products increased except light shapes, but as predicted in my earlier post, wire rod imports drove the sharp imports rise by growing 62% from 71,000 tons to 115,000 tons. Again this was mainly due to an increase of 39,000 tons of Turkish wire rod imports. Rebar and structural angles & channels also posted sharply increased imports at 85% and 185% growth over September respectively.
However, long products licenses recorded up to November 17th were only 50,000 tons which means that full-month November imports will be back to the low levels reached in June/July ’09.
After some delay, for which I apologize, the Q3 2009 results for Gerdau Ameristeel and Gerdau SA have been added to the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet. Both companies generated positive EBITDA per ton in Q3 despite low shipment volumes and difficult industry conditions. Gerdau SA generated EBITDA per ton of $172 in Q3, the best number so far among the companies tracked here on Nerds of Steel. Gerdau Ameristeel turned in EBITDA per ton of $108, which is also quite good. Gerdau Ameristeel’s earnings release can be found here and Gerdau’s can be found here.
