Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 30% from 353,000 short tons in August to 458,000 tons in September. This compares to flat products imports of 816,000 tons in September when we started collecting flat products license data. Flat rolled imports have been rising continuously since a June 2009 low of 252,000 tons.
Cut plate imports increased in September by 56%, due to a steep rise in Canadian imports. Hot dip galvanized imports increased 36%, in this case due to a large increase from India. Hot roll imports increased 28%, with imports climbing from Canada, the Netherlands, and France. And finally, cold rolled imports increased 19%, again due to increases from Canada.
Licenses reported up to 14 October indicate that full month October results will be marginally lower than September’s.
The World Steel Association just released its Autumn 2009 global steel demand forecast. The detailed forecast by country is available here. Global demand is expected to fall to just over 1.1 billion metric tonnes (BMT) in 2009, down from 1.2 BMT in 2008. In 2010, demand is forecast to grow by 9% and get back to the 2008 level.
Chinese crude steel production rose 3% from 50.7 million metric tonnes in July to 52.3 million tonnes in August. This is 23% higher than August 2008 production.
Finished steel exports continued the climb started in June by increasing 15% in August to 2.08 million tonnes. In comparison, last year’s August exports were 7.68 million tonnes. Net finished steel exports in August grew to 490,000 tonnes and apparent domestic consumption of finished steel increased 2% to 49.3 million tonnes.
The recent divergent trends in regional steel production continue according to the latest crude steel production figures from worldsteel published today. Overall global crude steel production rose about 2.5% in August over the prior month. But year-to-date output versus 2008 is down 18%.
The experience of different regions or economic groups is significantly different. China production grew over 3% in the month to a record 52.3MT. This puts China 6% up on production through August of last year. The rest of the world as a whole by contrast is down 32% year-to-date. And if that data is broken into Developed World and non-China Developing World the declines year-to-date are 42% and 21% respectively. All the data is in the Nerds of Steel production spreadsheet below which also contains the same data by month and country back to 2006.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 26% from 104,000 short tons in July to 131,000 tons in August. This is the highest level since March 2009 when long products imports were 168,000 tons, but it is below August 2008 imports of 232,000 tons.
Wire rod imports increased 121% from 33,000 tons to 73,000 tons, due to increases mainly from Italy, Brazil, and Venezuela. All other structural shapes imports also showed a sharp 118% rise from 4,742 tons to 10,343 tons, but a large part of this rise was Luxembourg and UK sheet piling coming back into the market after no imports were registered in July. In contrast, rebar and lights shapes imports dropped by 35% and 70% respectively.
License reported up to September 15th were 64,000 tons which indicates that long products imports will stay at about August levels for the full month of September.
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 27% from 291,000 short tons in July to 369,000 tons in August. This compares to flat products imports of 816,000 tons in September 2008 when we started collecting flat products license data.
Hot dip galvanized imports showed the only decline from 68,000 tons in July to 61,000 tons in August. Hot roll imports increased 42% to 213,000 tons, largely due to material from Korea and Australia. Cold roll imports rose 39% to 70,000 tons, here mainly the result of a rise from Brazil. And finally cut plate imports grew 11% to 26,000 tons, mainly due to Canadian plate.
Licenses reported up to 15 September indicate that full month September results will be higher than August’s.
