More third quarter earnings have been released and we’ve updated the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet, which holds the data behind the chart that appears below. Among recently reporting companies, three achieved better EBITDA per ton in Q3 vs. Q2 and two companies saw a deterioration in financial performance. Improvements were posted by AHMSA, which reported $86 in EBITDA per ton in Q3, up from $51 in Q2; SSAB up to $110 from $84; and US Steel up to $68 from $32. Lower EBITDA per ton was recorded by CMC, down to $68 from $86, and TimkenSteel down to negative $20, from positive $26 in Q2. More earnings will be coming soon so stay tuned.
Third quarter earnings season has begun and we have results from AK Steel, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics. All three companies announced higher EBITDA per ton in Q3 relative to Q2. AK’s EBITDA per ton rose from $78 to $132, Nucor’s jumped to $120 from $97, and Steel Dynamics led the pack with EBITDA of $159 per ton, up from $144 in Q2. More results will be coming soon so keep a look out for our next update.
Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 68.2 million metric tonnes in September, 3.9% higher than in September 2015. Chinese crude steel output in the first nine months of 2016 was 0.6% higher than in the same period last year.
China’s net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in September were 7.7 million tonnes, 25.1% lower than in September 2015. The first nine months of 2016 recorded next exports 2.7% higher than in the first nine months of 2015.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2005 to September 2016
thousand metric tonnes
Worldsteel published September’s world crude steel production on October 20th. World crude steel output was 132.9 million metric tonnes, 2.0% higher than in September 2015. World crude steel production in the first nine months of 2016 was 0.4% lower than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 51% of world output in September with production of 68.2M tonnes, up 3.9% compared to September 2015. Elsewhere in Asia, always comparing September 2016 to September 2015, Indian production increased 8.5% but Japanese output was down 1.5%. European Union output (including UK) fell 1.7% following reductions in Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland. Russian and Ukrainian production was also down, by 2.1% and 8.0% respectively, while Turkish output increased 8.1% and Iranian output rose 18.8%. And finally, US crude production fell 3.8%.
All the data for September 2016 and for a number of prior years can be found in the Nerds downloadable spreadsheet below.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports dropped 15% from 506,000 short tons in August to 432,000 tons in September. Long products imports in September 2015 were 361,000 tons and in September 2014 they were 398,000 tons. Longs imports for the first nine months of 2016 were 6% higher than in the same period last year with the largest gains coming from rebar and wire rod. The fall in longs imports between August and September, however, was mainly due to lower rebar imports from Japan and Taiwan.
SIMA US long products import licenses and actuals
2012 to 2016
short tons
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published October 11th, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast upwards. The revision raised estimated world steel demand growth between 2015 and 2016 from -0.8% in its April Short Range Outlook to 0.2% in its recent published figures. In addition, it revised the demand growth between 2016 and 2017 from -0.4% in its April estimate to 0.5%.
The higher growth in both years is due an improved (though still negative) estimate for growth in China, which accounts for about 45% of world steel demand, while the growth forecast for the rest or the world was lowered. Instead of declining by 4% in 2016 as predicted in April by Worldsteel, China’s apparent steel use will fall by 1%. In 2017, China’s ASU is now expected to fall by 2% instead of by 3% as predicted in April. Outside China, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2016 (1.8% in April’s SRO), and 2.6% in 2017 (3.0% in April’s SRO). European Union demand growth was lowered to 0.8% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017 while NAFTA demand growth was lowered to 0.1% in 2016 but increased to 2.9% in 2017.
