Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 70.7 million metric tonnes in March, 2.9% higher than in March 2015 and 13% higher on an average daily basis compared to the February 2016. Output in the first quarter of 2016 was, however, 2.7% lower than in the same period last year due to low January and February 2016 production.
China’s net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in March were 8.7 million tonnes, 30.2% higher than in March 2015. The first three months of 2016 recorded net exports 8.5% higher than in the first quarter of 2015.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2005 to March 2016
thousand metric tonnes
Worldsteel published March’s world crude steel production on April 20th. World crude steel output was 137.3 million metric tonnes, 0.5% lower than in March 2015. World crude production for the first three months of 2016 was 3.4% lower than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 51% of world production in March with output of 70.7M tonnes, up 2.9% compared to March 2015. Outside of China, significant changes in Asia compared to last March include a 6.8% drop in Japan, an 8.4% decline in South Korea, and a 14.7% fall in Taiwan. Indian output, however, was up 3.4%. Production in the European Union fell 8.7% March-to-March, led by declines in the UK, France and Spain. And in the Americas, US output rose 4.9% while Brazilian output was down 9.5%.
All the data for March 2016 and for a number of prior years can be found in the Nerds spreadsheet below.
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 5% from 431,000 short tons in February to 452,000 tons in March. Long products imports in March 2015 were 583,000 tons and in March 2014 they were 410,000 tons. Longs imports for the first three months of 2016 were 9.6% lower than in the same period last year.
To see the details about how imports have been changing by product, just download the spreadsheet below by clicking on the download icon on the bottom-right of the chart. I will update the chart to show mid-April licenses when the data is reported later this week.
SIMA US long products import licenses and import actuals
2012 to 2016
short tons
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published April 13th, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast downward. The revision lowered estimated world steel demand growth between 2015 and 2016 from 0.7% in it’s October 2015 Short Range Outlook to -0.8% in the recent published figures. In addition, Worldsteel expects world ASU to decline by 0.4% between 2016 and 2017 to a level of 1,494 million metric tonnes.
Instead of falling by 3.5% in 2015 as predicted in October by Worldsteel, China’s apparent steel use fell by 5.4%. China’s ASU in 2016 is expected to fall by 4.0%, while October’s Short Range Outlook expected it to decline by 2.0%. Steel consumption is expected to decline again by 3.0% in China in 2017.
For the world outside of China, Worldsteel’s ASU growth estimates were also revised downward from 2.9% growth in the October forecast to 1.8% growth in the newest figures. This is due to lower 2016 ASU growth estimates in the European Union (1.4% instead of 2.2%), the CIS (-7.4% instead of 0%), Central & South America (-6.0% instead of 2.0%), and MENA (3.1% instead of 5.2%). In contrast, NAFTA ASU growth was revised upward for 2016 from 2.1% to 3.2%.
See the spreadsheet below for Worldsteel 2017 growth estimates together with all the Worldsteel Short Range Outlook figures over the last few years.
The US Department of Commerce published the preliminary anti-dumping decision on hot rolled steel imports on March 15th. Now that the February import data has been published, we can look at the impact of the trade case on import volumes, as we did in an earlier post for cold rolled imports.
Since the last peak in January 2015, US hot rolled (sheet, coil, strip) imports from all countries have declined 54% from 777,000 short tons to 358,000 tons in February 2016. Imports from the countries under investigation (Australia, Brazil, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United Kingdom) declined 67% from 533,000 tons to 178,000 tons, while imports from non-investigated countries dropped 26% to 181,000 tons.
In brief, imports from investigated countries are down 356,000 tons and imports from other countries are down 63,000 tons. We’ll continue to monitor the impact of trade cases on imports as decisions are reported.
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose 2% from 860,000 short tons in February to 878,000 tons in March. Flat products imports in March 2015 were 1,271,000 tons and in March 2014 they were 1,001,000 tons. Imports of flat products for the first three months of 2016 were 32% lower than in the same period last year.
The small increase between February and March was driven by higher cut plate imports, with significantly higher volumes from France, Germany and South Korea. Hot roll, cold roll and hot dip galvanized imports each declined by between five and ten percent between February and March.
I will update the chart below to show mid-April licenses when the figures are published the week of April 18th.
SIMA US import licenses and actuals, flat products
January 2013 to March 2016
short tons
