Posts tagged as:

forecast

IMF World GDP Growth Forecast

July 17, 2008

The IMF just released its latest World Economic Outlook. The WEO includes world gdp growth forecasts for 2008 and 2009. Not surprisingly, world growth is expected to decelerate to 4.1% in 2008 and 3.9% in 2009, compared to 5.1% in 2006 and 5.0% in 2007. What does this mean for global steel demand growth? The […]

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Is R for recession or resilience?

January 9, 2008

Goldman Sachs reported today that it believes the US economy will suffer a recession in 2008, and Goldman is not alone.  It seems everyone is worried about the impact of the credit crunch and high energy costs on US consumers.  So, what might a recession mean for shipments by steel producers in the US in 2008?  There is clearly […]

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China demand expected to grow by 60 MT in 2008

December 14, 2007

The latest issue of the China Metallurgical Newsletter has Chinese steel industry data through October 2007. Based on the first ten months it looks like finished steel demand is likely to come in around 510 million tonnes for the 2007, while net exports are likley to finish 2007 at around 45 million tonnes (exports 62 […]

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Notes on SIMA Licenses

October 17, 2007

Here’s a graphical version of the SIMA versus actual import data that Jessica posted. It includes only carbon/alloy finished long products. The data is shown in short tons. The SIMA license data comes from this website of the import administration. It’s published every Tuesday evening. The analysis here is an attempt to exploit the early […]

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IISI forecasts steel demand growth of 6.8% for 2008

October 9, 2007

The IISI published its short range outlook October 8. Here’s the link. It’s not available in any better form than a PDF, but that’s attached, IISI Short Range Outlook 10/8. The summary table is shown below: Table 1: Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2006-2008) in ‘000 of tonnes Regions 2006 2007 2008 % […]

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