Chinese crude steel production rose 12% from 40.4 million metric tonnes in February to 45.1 million tonnes in March.
As a result of a 17% increase in finished steel imports to 1.27 million tonnes and a 7% increase in finished steel exports to 1.67 million tonnes, net finished steel exports declined to 0.4 million tonnes.
Finished steel production increased 11% from 38.1 million tonnes in February to 42.2 million tonnes in March.
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by warrensx2
Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports climbed 16% from 115,000 short tons in February to 133,000 tons in March.
February actual imports were even lower than licenses indicated at mid-March because February rebar licenses were revised from 59,000 tons to 29,000 tons after our mid-March collection time. March rebar licenses reported at mid-April indicate a return to the 60,000 ton level, but licenses for all other products are down in March compared to February actuals. In addition, preliminary long products import licenses for April collected 14 April were only 27,000 tons which means that full-month April imports will hit a new historical low.
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Last week I spoke at the AMM Steel Tube & Pipe conference in Houston. My presentation was titled “Return of the Evil Banana” and provides a forecast of 2009-2013 steel demand in the US. The forecast is based on a proprietary First River model which relates steel demand in the US to NA automotive production levels and non-residential construction activity. Given the bearish nature of these forecasts over the next 5 years, the implications for steel demand in the US are dire.
As for the title, it refers to the fact that during the recession of 1980, Jimmy Carter did not like his economic advisers using the term recession, so they substituted the word “banana”.
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After a 10% climb between December and January, crude steel production in China declined 2% to 40.42 million metric tonnes in February. As a result of a 27% growth in finished steel imports to 1.09 million tonnes and a 16% drop in finished steel exports to 1.56 million tonnes, net finished steel exports reached a low of 0.47 million tonnes.
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Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports rose by 4% in February to reach 553,000 short tons compared to January actuals of 532,000 tons. This small change in the total flat products import level masks a 41% decline in cut plate imports to 66,000 tons and a 29% rise in hot roll imports to 278,000 tons. Cut plate import licenses declined significantly for the Ukraine, Malaysia and Russia. Hot roll import licenses increased significantly for Turkey, Canada, Mexico, Korea and Finland.
Flat products import licenses reported up to 17 March were 262,000 tons which implies that full-month February imports will be flat.
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Worldsteel has published crude steel production estimates for 66 countries around the world that report production. The data is shown in the spreadsheet below. There is a minor decline in output from January, but given the likely revisions to the data – up and down – caution should be taken in assuming a continuing downward trend. If the current rates of operation around the world are sustained through 2009 it would mean production of just over 1Bn tonnes – a decline from 2008 of 22%.
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