Worldsteel has published crude steel production estimates for 66 countries around the world that report production. The data is shown in the spreadsheet below. There is a minor decline in output from January, but given the likely revisions to the data – up and down – caution should be taken in assuming a continuing downward trend. If the current rates of operation around the world are sustained through 2009 it would mean production of just over 1Bn tonnes – a decline from 2008 of 22%.
Based on reported US import licenses, long products imports in February declined by 41% compared to January actuals to reach 156,000 short tons, below the November 2008 import low of 173,000 tons. This was driven mainly by the halving of wire rod imports from 84,000 tons in January to 41,000 tons in February, and by a sharp decline in parallel flange sections imports from 83,000 tons in January to 21,000 tons in February (due to lower tonnages from Korea, Taiwan and Germany).
Import licenses reported up to March 17th were 98,000 tons so full-month imports for March are likely to be higher than February’s.
Chinese crude steel production grew 10% between December and January to reach 41.5 million metric tonnes. Exports declined to 1.91 million tonnes in January, a full 40% decrease on December, and apparent domestic consumption was 37.8 million tonnes compared to 33.1 million tonnes in December.
Based on reported import licenses, US flat products imports increased 8% in January to 514,000 short tonnes compared to December actuals of 474,000 tons. Licenses reported up to 17 February reached 347,000 tons, which indicates that full-month imports for February should climb significantly.
I will now be reporting monthly US import license data for flat products, as I do for long products. I report the monthly results about two weeks after the month-end (so January results at mid-February) and also give mid-month results for the current month.
License data comes from the website of the import administration called SIMA, which updates the data every Tuesday. We have found that license data reported two weeks after month-end is an excellent predictor of actual imports, though actual import results which come from the Department of Commerce trail the month end by six weeks.
Ternium announced 2008 financial results today. You can read the company’s press release here. Ternium’s EBITDA per ton in Q4 fell significantly from Q3 but remained near the top of the companies we follow on a regular basis on the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet.
Worldsteel just published the preliminary world crude steel production figures for January 2009. They show a small 5% increase in output from December data entirely attributable to China – a trend that seems to have been shortlived according to this article in the FT on February 20. For non FT-subscribers the article says:
Chinese steel mills appear to be cutting production, after a sharp increase since December, reflecting fresh concerns about domestic demand and doubts about whether the Chinese economy has bottomed out.
All other regions of the world were flat with the prior month. There were also a considerable number of significant revisions to the December data, so with that in mind, any inferences to be drawn from this month’s figures should be done so cautiously. Data in the Nerds Crude Steel spreadsheet below.
