Based on reported US import licenses, long products imports in January rose 57% to 280,000 short tons compared to actual December imports of 178,000 tons.
The January increase was mainly due to growth in rebar and sections licenses. Rebar imports grew from December actual levels of 14,000 tons to January licenses of 65,000 tons. Sections imports grew from December actuals of 28,000 tons to historically high January licenses of 86,000 tons, mainly due to licenses for Korea, Taiwan and Germany.
February licenses reported up to 17 February reached only 69,000 tons, however, which should mean that full-month February imports will be low.
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Crude steel production in China reversed its decline and climbed 7% to reach 37.8 million metric tonnes in December. December finished steel exports also grew by the same percentage to 3.2 million tonnes.
Crude steel production was 9% below its level in December 2007 and exports were 34% lower.
Full-year 2008 crude production rose by 2% over 2007 to 498 million tonnes while exports declined by 5% to 59 millions tonnes. Full-year finished steel production and consumption both grew by 3%.
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CBS News magazine 60 Minutes last night reported on the “Buy American” steel aspects of the current stimulus package. The video below features Nucor employees and CEO Dan DiMicco. One of the most interesting comments comes from a group of inside salespeople who explain how in one week in December total orders were negative as cancellations outweighed new orders.
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ArcelorMittal announced 2008 financial results today. Shipments in Q4 were 18.7 million net tons, down 33% from Q3. EBITDA per net ton also fell dramatically, from $304 in Q3 to $149 in Q4.
The company expects Q1 2009 shipments of 17.6 to 18.7 million net tons, off only modestly from Q4 2008’s depressed level. But EBITDA is expected to continue dropping, from $2.8 billion in Q4 to $1.0 billion in Q1 2009. If shipments come in at the mid-point of the companies forecast, say 18 million net tons, Q1 2009 EBITDA per ton will fall to $55.
EBITDA per ton for ArcelorMittal and other companies can be found in the Nerds of Steel earnings spreadsheet.
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We’re not a forecasting firm, we’re strategy consultants. But lately macroeconomic developments are at the forefront of everyone’s mind, for obvious reasons. So we’ve endeavored to keep you abreast of the latest forecasts and what they might mean for steel production and demand. In this vein, I received the following question yesterday from one of our blog readers: “What´s your prediction in the EU, USA and China for 2009 steel output?”
In this post, I indicated that steel demand in the US might be down 15-20% this year, if GDP falls by 1.6% as forecast by the IMF. I made no specific forecast of 2009 steel production, but it will be off as well, probably by a little less than demand.
I don’t have a specific forecast for Europe, but Eurofer, the European Steel Producer’s Association, has done a great job of providing one. They are calling for steel demand (as measured by apparent domestic consumption) and production to be down 15% and 16% respectively in 2009 before picking up in 2010. Here’s a direct link to the pdf file, which includes the forecast and some detail supporting the forecast.
As far as China is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Anyone want to provide a forecast of Chinese steel production or consumption in 2009? Maybe we should run a contest and see who comes closest. Winner gets a Nerds of Steel T-shirt!
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