The NoS quarterly financials spreadsheet has been updated to include Steel Dynamics fourth quarter and full year results.
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This is a very interesting presentation from Russian mining & metallurgical company Metalloinvest from September 2007. It provides some good data on Russian steel output through 2015 along with changing raw material use and sources as the Russian economy and particularly the steelmaking portion expand. This is especially important as the withdrawal of Russian scrap supply from the international market is one of the factors driving scrap price increases in North America, rebar prices in Turkey, non-residential construction costs everywhere etc. etc.
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US import licenses for long products declined from 240,000 short tons in November ’07 to 222,000 short tons in December, based on SIMA data. This is the lowest level of long products import licenses since we began tracking them in April 07 when they were 358,000 short tons. As you may have seen from earlier posts, SIMA import license data is a good indicator of actual import levels and is published before Department of Commerce import data is available. For more information on our collection of SIMA data, see our earlier posts “SIMA US long products import licenses for Sept, Oct, Nov 07” and “Notes on SIMA licenses”.
EditGrid Spreadsheet by user/nerdsofsteel.
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Goldman Sachs reported today that it believes the US economy will suffer a recession in 2008, and Goldman is not alone. It seems everyone is worried about the impact of the credit crunch and high energy costs on US consumers. So, what might a recession mean for shipments by steel producers in the US in 2008?
There is clearly a correlation between GDP growth and steel demand. In developed economies, such as the US, the rule of thumb is that GDP has to grow at a base line level or steel demand contracts. In the US, the rule is pretty simple: If GDP grows by more than 2.5%, steel demand tends to rise. Conversely, steel demand falls when GDP grows by less than 2.5%. You can see this in the graph below. (If the graph is hard to read, click on it and it will enlarge).
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