In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published today, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast for 2018 upward. The revision increased forecast steel demand growth between 2017 and 2018 from 1.8% in its April 2018 Short Range Outlook to 3.9% in the figures published today. In addition, it revised the demand growth between 2018 and 2019 from 0.7% in its April forecast to 1.4%.
Worldsteel points out that as in 2017, a significant portion of the 2018 demand growth reflects the formerly unreported demand from Chinese induction furnaces closed in 2018 which are now regularly reported. So while nominal steel demand is expected to grow by 6.0% in China during 2018, real demand will grow by 2.0%. In any case, Worldsteel’s outlook on China steel demand has improved. In nominal terms, China’s steel demand is now forecast to grow by 6.0% in 2018 (compared to 0% in the April 2018 SRO) and by 0% in 2019 (compared to -2.0% in the April 2018 SRO).
Outside of China, Worldsteel raised its 2018 and 2019 steel consumption forecast for the European Union (2.2% in 2018 instead of 2.0% in the April 2018 SRO and 1.7% in 2019 instead of 0.8% in the April 2018 SRO). However in the NAFTA region, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2018 (down from 3.0% in the April 2018 forecast) and by 1.0% in 2019 (down from 1.6% in the April 2018 forecast).
Photo by Chi King (Glass and Steel (HONG KONG/ARCHITECTURE) VI) [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Based on reported import licenses, US flat steel products imports are expected to rise 21% from 765,000 short tons in August to 927,000 tons in September. This is following a 41% increase in hot rolled licenses in September, due mainly to higher licenses from South Korea and Turkey. In addition, cold rolled import licenses rose 20% in September, with higher volumes booked from Australia, Vietnam, South Korea and others.
Based on January-to-August imports and September import licenses, flat products imports in the first nine months of 2018 were 5% lower than in the same period last year with a 23% rise in hot rolled imports offsetting declines in imports of cold rolled (-25%), hot dip galvanized (-13%) and cut plate (-23%).
SIMA US flat products import licenses
January 2013 to September 2018
short tons
Photo by Jukka Male [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons
Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 80.3 million metric tonnes in August, 2.7% higher than in August 2017. Chinese output over the first eight months of 2018 was 5.9% higher than in the same period last year.
Chinese net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in August were approximately 4.7 million tonnes, 14% lower than in August 2017. Net exports in the first eight months of 2018 were about 16% lower than in the first eight months of 2017.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2006 to August 2018, thousand metric tonnes
Yujiapu railway station under construction, photo by ETFE.CUSHION [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], from Wikimedia Commons
Worldsteel published August’s world crude steel production on September 25th. World steel output was 151.7 million metric tonnes, 2.6% higher than in August 2017. Crude steel production for the first eight months of 2018 was 4.8% higher than in the same period last year.
China accounted for 53% of world output in August with production of 80.3 million tonnes, 2.7% higher than in August 2017. Asian output outside of China grew 3.6% due to increases mainly in India (+3.7%), Vietnam (+46.8%), and Taiwan (+8.2%). European Union production rose 1.4% where increases in Germany (+7.5%) and Belgium (+15.6%) offsett declines in Austria (-52.6%) and France (-16.8%). In the NAFTA region, US crude production rose 5.1% compared to last August, Mexican output increased 7.0%, and Canadian production fell 2.2%. Other notable changes year-on-year include a 5.7% drop in Turkey and a 9.0% increase in Iran.
Photo by Idus Druida [Public domain], from Wikimedia Commons, Page URL: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Palanquilla.jpg
Based on reported import licenses, US long steel products imports rose 3% from 327,000 short tons in July to 337,000 tons in August. Licenses show wire rod imports rising significantly in August from Turkey, Vietnam, Germany and South Korea. This was offset by lower rebar import licenses from Italy and Spain (and despite higher rebar licenses from Turkey) as well as lower parallel flange sections import licenses from Luxembourg and the United Arab Emirates.
Long products imports in the first eight months of 2018 were 26% lower than in the same period last year, led by a 30% drop in wire rod imports and a 21% fall in rebar imports.
SIMA US long products import licenses
2012 to 2018
short tons
Photo from Worldsteel Association Image Library by worldsteel / Seong Joon Cho, Image ID 284
Based on reported import licenses, US flat steel products imports fell 17% from 853,000 short tons in July to 711,000 tons in August. Out of our four main flat products categories, hot rolled imports fell by the largest volume, with significantly lower imports from Japan, Turkey and South Korea. Cold rolled imports fell mainly from Australia and Vietnam. Only cut plate imports rose following higher volumes from South Korea.
Flat products imports for the first eight months of 2018 were 7% lower than in the same period last year with declines in cold rolled (-26%), hot dip galvanized (-14%), and cut plate (-22%) imports offsetting a rise in hot rolled imports (+17%).
SIMA US flat products imports licenses
January 2013 to August 2018
short tons
Photo from Worldsteel Association Image Library by worldsteel / Robert Kolykhalov, Image ID 476
