Nucor and Steel Dynamics announced Q1 2018 earnings this week and both companies posted strong EBITDA per ton. Nucor’s EBITDA per ton rose to $116 from $94 in Q4 last year, while Steel Dynamics rsoe to $158 from $115.
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In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published yesterday, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast for 2018 upward. The revision increased estimated world steel demand growth between 2017 and 2018 from 1.6% in its October 2017 Short Range Outlook to 1.8% in the recent published figures.
China accounted for 46.4% of world steel demand in 2017 and while China’s ASU was expected to grow by 12.4% in 2017, demand actually grew by 8.3%. And in 2018, China’s ASU is still expected to show 0% growth, as already forecast in the October SRO. 2019 demand in China is expected to fall by 2.0%.
For the world outside of China, ASU grew more slowly than expected in 2017, by 1.8% instead of the forecast 2.6%. However, the new forecast revises 2018 demand outside of China up from 3.0% to 3.4% with revised higher 2018 demand in EU, NAFTA, Central & South America, and African regions.
See the spreadsheet below for Worldsteel 2018 and 2019 growth estimates together with all the Worldsteel Short Range Outlook figures over the last few years.
Photo of World Trade Center facade 2008 by urrrric (7 World Trade Center) [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Based on reported import licenses, US long products imports rose 45% from 266,000 short tons in February to 387,000 tons in March. The steep climb between February and March 2018 was due to higher rebar imports from Turkey (and bearing in mind the longer March month).
Long products imports in the first quarter of 2018 were 34% lower than in the same period last year, led by a 51% drop in rebar imports and a 31% fall in wire rod imports.
SIMA US long products import licenses and actuals
2012 to 2018
short tons
Photo by druida [Public domain], from Wikimedia Commons
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Based on reported import licenses, US flat steel products imports rose 38% from 709,000 short tons in February to 978,000 tons in March. Hot rolled imports increased the most compared to other product categories, with higher volumes mainly from Canada, South Korea and Turkey.
Flat products imports in the first three months of 2018 were 1% higher than in the same period last year, though a 38% increase in hot rolled imports offset a 21% decline in cold rolled imports and a 13% drop in hot dip galvanized imports.
SIMA US flat products import licenses and actuals
January 2013 to March 2018
short tons
Hot Strip Mill, Tata Steel Kalinganagar
Photo from Worldsteel Association Image Library by worldsteel_Prasenjeet Gautam, image ref. worldsteel_Tata Steel_India_Hot Rolling_2.jpg
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Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 64.9 million metric tonnes in February, 5.9% higher than in February 2017. Chinese net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in February were 3.8 million tonnes, 17.6% lower than in February last year.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2006 to February 2018, thousand metric tonnes
Photo by Prof. Chen Hualin (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Worldsteel published February’s world crude steel production today. World crude steel output was 131.8 million metric tonnes, 3.5% higher than in February 2017 (and despite February having one day less in 2018).
China accounted for 49% of world output in February with production of 64.9 million tonnes, 5.9% higher than in February 2017. Outside of China, Asian production rose 0.5% with Indian output rising 3.4% but other major countries declining. European Union output fell 0.8% compared to last February, and in the CIS, Russian production fell 5.7%. In North America, US production rose 0.4% while Canadian output fell 10.4% and Mexican production fell 7.1%. Other significant crude production changes include an 8.7% increase in Turkey, and a 48.6% increase in Iran.
All the data for February 2018 and for a number of prior years can be found in the Nerds spreadsheet below.
Production process of billets at NLMK Kaluga
Photo from Worldsteel Association Image Library by worldsteel / Robert Kolykhalov, Image Ref:worldsteel_NLMK_russia_steelmaking_3.jpg
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