Based on reported import licenses, US flat steel products imports rose 13% from 816,000 short tons in March to 924,000 tons in April. Flat products imports for the first four months of 2017 were 4% lower than in the same period last year, with increases in hot dip galvanized (+26%) and cold rolled (+42%) imports, and declines from hot rolled (-29%) and cut plate (-52%) imports.
Imports of all flat products categories rose between March and April 2017 but the highest volume increase came from hot dip galvanized volumes from countries including South Africa, Turkey, and Taiwan.
SIMA US flat products import licenses and actuals
January 2013 to April 2017
short tons
Photo by Andrzej Otrębski (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Three more companies released Q1 2017 earnings this week. AHMSA’s EBITDA per ton jumped to $53, from a loss of $11 last quarter. Gerdau reported $64 as compared to $39 in the fourth quarter of last year. The biggest improvement was recorded by TimkenSteel: shipments were up 50% in the quarter and EBITDA per ton rose to $46, from a loss of $282 in the final quarter of 2017. The final company we follow, ArcelorMittal, should report next week.
Worldsteel reported Chinese crude steel production at 72.0 million metric tonnes in March, 1.8% higher than in March 2016. Chinese crude steel output for the first quarter of 2017 was 4.4% higher than in the same period last year.
China’s net finished steel exports (exports minus imports) in March were 6.3M tonnes, 28.1% lower than in March 2016. China’s net finished steel exports during the first quarter of 2017 were 30.3% lower than in the first quarter of 2016.
China monthly crude steel production
January 2005 to March 2017, thousand metric tonnes
Photo by foxmachia (originally posted to Flickr as 4.24 Expo Scene) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Worldsteel published March’s world crude steel production on April 24th. World crude steel output was 145.0 million metric tonnes, 4.6% higher than in March 2016. World production in the first quarter of 2017 was 5.6% higher than in the same period last year.
China accounted for half of world output in March with production of 72.0 million tonnes, 1.8% higher than in March 2016. But Asian crude output outside of China rose 7.7%, led by year-on-year increases in India (+8.2%), Vietnam (+126.8%), and South Korea (+6.4%). European Union production compared to last March rose 6.7% due to increases mainly from France, Italy and Spain, while Turkish output rose a significant 14.0%. In the Americas, production increased in Mexico (+35.7%), Canada (+13.7%), the US (3.4%), and Brazil (13.7%). And finally, Irananian output increased by 18.3% compared to last March.
All the data for March 2017 and for a number of prior years can be found in the Nerds spreadsheet below.
Photo by Paul Goyette (http://www.flickr.com/photos/pgoyette/199492120/)[CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Five more North American steel producers recently reported first quarter financial results. Two were US-based integrated producers and both experienced a decline in EBITDA per ton as compared to the final quarter of 2016: AK’s EBITDA per ton fell to $118 in Q1 from $131 in Q4 last year, while US Steel’s dropped from $46 to $9. The other three companies saw improvements in EBITDA per ton over Q4: CMC’s rose to $83 from $56, SSAB’s increased to $94 from $56, and Ternium’s jumped to $170 from $123. There will be more results released in the next couple weeks so don’t change that dial.
In its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), published April 21st, Worldsteel revised its world apparent steel use (ASU) growth forecast upward. The revision increased estimated world steel demand growth between 2016 and 2017 from 0.5% in its October 2016 Short Range Outlook to 1.3% in the recent published figures.
While China’s ASU was expected to fall by 1.0% in 2016, demand actually grew by 1.3%. And in 2017, China’s ASU is now expected to remain flat instead of falling by 2.0% as forecast in the October SRO. However, demand in China is now expected to drop by 2.0% in 2018.
For the world outside of China, ASU grew more slowly than expected in 2016, by 0.7% instead of the forecast 1.1%. And the new forecast revises 2017 demand outside of China down from 2.6% to 2.4%. This is due to lower 2017 growth estimates in the European Union (0.5% instead of 1.4%), NAFTA (2.2% instead of 2.9%), Central & South America (3.5% instead of 4.1%), and Africa (1.5% instead of 3.9%). In contrast, the 2017 ASU growth forecast was revised upward in non-China Asia (3.2% instead of 3.0%), the CIS (3.2% instead of 2.1%) and the Middle East (3.1% intead of 0.1%).
See the downloadable spreadsheet below for Worldsteel 2017 and 2018 growth estimates together with all the Worldsteel Short Range Outlook figures over the last few years.
